UNFCCC 2024 NDC Synthesis Report

Executive summary

1.

This report has been prepared in response to the request from CMA 31  for the

secretariat to annually update the NDC synthesis report.2  This version of the report

synthesizes information from the 168 latest available NDCs, representing 195 Parties to the

Paris Agreement,3 including the 153 new or updated NDCs communicated by 180 Parties,

recorded in the NDC registry4  as at 9 September 2024, covering 95 per cent of the total global

emissions in 2019, which are estimated at 52.9 Gt CO2 eq without LULUCF.5  A total of 34

Parties have communicated new or updated NDCs since 25 September 2023 (the cut-off date

for submissions covered in the previous version of this report).

2.

The COP and CMA guidance6 on the information necessary for clarity, transparency

and understanding of NDCs was used as a framework for synthesizing the relevant

information contained in the communicated NDCs, which was supplemented by the synthesis

of other information included in the NDCs but not covered by the guidance. The synthesized

information is presented for all the represented Parties taken together.

3.

A total of 95 per cent of Parties provided the information necessary to facilitate clarity,

transparency and understanding of their NDCs in accordance with the COP guidance, with

94 per cent of Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs already applying the relevant

further CMA guidance.

4.

Parties provided information on mitigation targets as well as mitigation co-benefits

resulting from adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. The mitigation

targets range from economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets to strategies, policies,

plans and actions for low-emission development. In their NDCs:

(a)

94 per cent of Parties provided quantified mitigation targets, expressed as clear

numerical targets, while 6 per cent included strategies, policies, plans and actions for which

there is no quantifiable information as components of their NDCs;

(b)

81 per cent of Parties communicated economy-wide targets, covering all or

almost all sectors defined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, with an increasing number of Parties

moving to absolute emission reduction targets in their new or updated NDCs;

(c)

100 per cent of Parties covered CO2 emissions, 91 per cent covered CH4, 89

per cent covered N2O, 54 per cent covered HFCs, 35 per cent covered PFCs and SF6 and 26

per cent covered NF3;

(d)

46 per cent of Parties provided information on mitigation co-benefits resulting

from their adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, mostly in combination

with other targets.

5.

A total of 93 per cent of Parties communicated an NDC implementation period of

until 2030, while 7 per cent specified an implementation period of until 2025, 2035, 2040 or

2050. While 54 per cent of Parties identified 1 January 2021 as their starting date for NDC

implementation, 29 per cent indicated that they started implementing their NDC in or before

2020 and 6 per cent mentioned starting implementation in 2022.

6.

In addition, 96 per cent of Parties provided quantified information on their mitigation

targets and reference points. Of the Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs, 84 per cent

updated the basis for defining their targets, including reference points and/or ‘business as usual’ scenarios. Such updates lead to higher-quality NDCs and, for some Parties, to

significant changes in the estimated emission levels for 2025 and 2030.

7.

Furthermore, Parties are increasingly indicating their use of voluntary cooperation

under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with 78 per cent stating that they plan to or will

possibly use at least one type. Use of cooperative approaches referred to in Article 6,

paragraph 2, was most frequently communicated (by 52 per cent of Parties), followed by use

of the mechanism established by Article 6, paragraph 4, (34 per cent) and general use of

voluntary cooperation (25 per cent). Parties mentioned general use of voluntary cooperation,

rather than reporting planned or possible use of specific scopes of voluntary cooperation,

more frequently than indicated in previous versions of this report.

8.

Total global GHG emissions (without LULUCF) taking into account implementation

of the latest NDCs7  are estimated to be around 53.0 (51.4–54.5) Gt CO2 eq in 20258  and 51.5

(48.3–54.7) Gt CO2 eq in 2030,9  which are:10 

(a)

In 2025, 54.0 per cent higher than in 1990 (34.4 Gt CO2 eq), 11.3 per cent

higher than in 2010 (47.6 Gt CO2 eq) and approximately the same as in 2019 (52.9 Gt CO2

eq);11 

(b)

In 2030, 49.8 per cent higher than in 1990, 8.3 per cent higher than in 2010

and 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019, as well as 2.8 per cent lower than the estimated level for

2025, indicating the possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030.

9.

In comparison, the total GHG emission levels resulting from implementation of NDCs

(those submitted by 25 September 2023) presented in the previous version of this report were

estimated to be around 53.2 (51.6–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and 51.6 (48.3–54.8) Gt CO2 eq

in 2030. Those levels are very similar (at 0.2 Gt CO2 eq higher for 2025 and 0.1 Gt CO2 eq

higher for 2030) to the levels presented in this report, the estimates of which reflect a slight

increase in aggregate NDC ambition level and updated emission data.

10.

The projected total global GHG emission level taking into account full

implementation of all latest NDCs continues to imply a possibility of global emissions

peaking before 2030, with the lower bound of the 2030 emission level (48.3 Gt CO2 eq)

estimated to be up to 8.6 per cent below the 2019 emission level (52.9 Gt CO2 eq) and 6.0

per cent below the lower bound of the estimated 2025 emission level (51.4 Gt CO2 eq).

However, in order to achieve that peaking, the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be

implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology

transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market

based mechanisms; and absorptive capacity of forests and other ecosystems.

11.

Full implementation of all latest NDCs is estimated to lead to a 5.9 (3.2–8.6) per cent

emission reduction by 2030 relative to the 2019 level; while implementation of all latest

NDCs excluding any conditional elements is estimated to result in 0.8 per cent higher

emissions in 2030 than in 2019 (ranging from 1.8 per cent lower to 3.4 per cent higher).

12.

The contribution of Working Group III to the AR612 concludes that, in scenarios of

limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood by 2100) with no or limited

overshoot over the course of the century,13 GHG emissions are reduced by 43 (34–60) per

cent by 2030 relative to the 2019 level. In scenarios of keeping warming likely below 2 °C

(with over 67 per cent likelihood) with mitigation action starting in 2020, emissions in 2030

are 27 (13–45) per cent below the 2019 level.14

13.

The Synthesis Report of the AR615 indicates that, to be in line with global modelled

pathways to limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood) with no or limited

overshoot and those to limiting warming to 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood), GHG

emissions have to be reduced by 60 (49–77) per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and

by 35 (22–55) per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level respectively.

14.

The absolute difference in the level of emissions by 2030 according to the latest NDCs

and these IPCC scenarios16 is sizeable, despite progress compared with the level according

to the INDCs as at 4 April 2016. The difference between the projected emission levels that

do not take into account implementation of any conditional elements of NDCs and the

emission levels in the scenarios of keeping warming likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent

likelihood) by 2030 is estimated to be 14.9 (10.9–18.3) Gt CO2 eq. In relation to the scenarios

of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (with over 50 per cent likelihood) and achieving net zero

emissions this century, the gap is even wider, at an estimated 22.7 (21.2–27.7) Gt CO2 eq.

However, assuming full implementation of all latest NDCs, including all conditional

elements, the gap is slightly narrowed, towards 11.3 (7.3–14.7) Gt CO2 eq in relation to the

aforementioned 2 °C scenarios and towards 19.2 (17.6–24.1) Gt CO2 eq in relation to the

aforementioned 1.5 °C scenarios.

15.

Taking into account the implementation of NDCs up until 2030, projected global

mean temperatures are subject to significant uncertainty owing to the range of emission levels

estimated for 2030 resulting from implementation of NDCs (including whether conditional

elements are implemented or not), the range of illustrative emission extensions beyond 2030

and inherent climate system uncertainties. The best estimate of peak temperature in the

twenty-first century (projected mostly for 2100 when temperature continues to rise) is in the

range of 2.1–2.8 °C depending on the underlying assumptions.

16.

In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50 per cent likelihood of limiting

warming to 1.5 °C (500 Gt CO2), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the latest

NDCs would likely use up 86 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, leaving a post-2030

carbon budget of around 70 Gt CO2, which is equivalent to approximately two years of

projected total global CO2 emissions by 2030. Similarly, in the context of the carbon budget

consistent with a likely chance of keeping warming below 2 °C (estimated by the IPCC to be

1,150 Gt CO2 from 2020 onward), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030 based on the

latest NDCs would likely use up around 37 per cent of the remaining carbon budget. For comparison, total global CO2 emissions between 1850 and 2020 are estimated by the IPCC17

to have amounted to 2,390 (2,150–2,630) Gt CO2.

17.

A total of 50 per cent of Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions,

strategies and targets for up until and beyond 2050. Their total GHG emission level is

estimated to be 39.2 (37.2–41.1) Gt CO2 eq in 2030, which is 4 per cent higher than in 2010

(with a range from 1 per cent lower to 9 per cent higher) and 6 (1–10) per cent lower than in

2019.18

18.

Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, and the need for full

implementation of NDCs and LT-LEDS, the information indicates that these Parties’ total

GHG emission level could be 63 (59–67) per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019 and their annual

per capita emissions would be 2.4 (2.1–2.6) t CO2 eq by 2050. Under scenarios of limiting

warming to likely below 2 °C (with over 67 per cent likelihood), annual per capita emissions

are 2.4 (1.6–3.1) t CO2 eq; hence the estimated long-term per capita emissions of these Parties

are at a level consistent with 2 °C scenarios. However, for scenarios of limiting warming to

1.5 °C (with 50 per cent likelihood by 2100) and achieving net zero CO2 emissions around

2050 and net zero GHG emissions this century, annual per capita emissions by 2050 are

required to be two to three times lower, at 1.3 (0.6–2.1) t CO2 eq.19

19.

A total of 97 per cent of Parties explained their approach to NDC preparation and

implementation, and 59 per cent of Parties linked their NDCs to their commitment to

transitioning to a sustainable and/or low-carbon and resilient economy, taking into account

social, environmental and economic factors as well as the SDGs. In addition, 48 per cent of

Parties indicated that they have integrated their NDC targets, goals and policies into national

legislative, regulatory and planning processes as a means of ensuring implementation.

20.

Furthermore, 66 per cent of Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies

between their domestic mitigation measures20 and development priorities, which include the

SDGs and, for some that submitted new or updated NDCs, LT-LEDS and green recovery

from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

21.

Of the 79 per cent of Parties that referred to formal arrangements in place for domestic

stakeholder consultation, 93 per cent indicated that they conducted consultations and

engagement in an inclusive and participatory manner and 81 per cent of those specifically

referenced gender-sensitive consultations.

22.

Parties are increasingly21 recognizing gender integration as a means to enhance the

ambition and effectiveness of their climate action: 82 per cent of Parties provided information

related to gender in their NDCs and 48 per cent affirmed that they will take gender into

account in implementing them.22 Of the Parties that referenced gender, 32 per cent had not

included reference to gender in their previous NDCs and 28 per cent considered gender to a

similar extent to previously. Of the Parties that referenced gender in their previous NDCs, 28

per cent elaborated more on the topic in their updated NDCs.

23.

In 60 per cent of the latest available NDCs, Parties recognized the rights and important

role of Indigenous Peoples, as well as the role of local communities, in relation to climate adaptation efforts. They acknowledged the vulnerabilities faced by Indigenous Peoples and

local communities, emphasized the importance of strengthening climate efforts through

incorporation of traditional knowledge, Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge systems,

and highlighted the need to enhance these groups’ participation in and contributions to

climate action.

24.

In addition, 98 per cent of Parties provided information on using one or more ACE

elements23 to promote implementation of mitigation and adaptation activities, and in their

new or updated NDCs Parties generally communicated more clearly and in more detail on

general principles, past achievements, future commitments, and needs and gaps in relation to

ACE.

25.

Furthermore, 81 per cent of Parties included an adaptation component in their NDCs

and 13 per cent of the adaptation components were designated as adaptation communications.

Parties provided information in particular on adaptation-related research; risks and

vulnerabilities; adaptation strategies, policies and plans; sectoral adaptation measures;

contingency measures; synergies with mitigation and other global frameworks; and

monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.

26.

In comparison with Parties’ previous NDCs, more of the NDCs contain adaptation

information. The adaptation components of the NDCs, where included, indicate an increased

focus on national adaptation planning, in particular on the process to formulate and

implement NAPs. The new or updated NDCs include, in comparison with the same Parties’

previous NDCs, more information on time-bound quantitative adaptation targets and the

associated indicator frameworks, more specific information on the contribution of adaptation

efforts towards achieving the SDGs, and more specific information on synergies and

co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation.

27.

In terms of adaptation priorities, the NDCs illustrate that Parties continue to focus on

food production and nutrition security, water resources, terrestrial and wetland ecosystems,

key economic sectors and services, and human health; followed by disaster risk management,

coastal and low-lying areas, urban areas and human habitats, livelihoods and poverty, and

ocean ecosystems (see figure 10).

28.

A total of 99 per cent of Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key

instruments for achieving mitigation targets for their NDCs and/or for priority areas, such as

energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, AFOLU and waste. Parties communicated

mitigation measures most frequently in the priority area of energy supply (95 per cent of

Parties), followed by AFOLU (89 per cent) and transport (87 per cent).

29.

Parties identified mitigation options costing less than USD 20/t CO2 eq, which are

projected in the contribution of Working Group III to the AR6 to account for more than half

of the total emission reduction potential that is required for being on 1.5 °C pathways with

no or limited overshoot by 2030. Such mitigation options with the highest estimated net

emission reduction potential (in parentheses) include:

(a)

Solar energy (3.3 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 51 per cent of Parties communicating

corresponding measures;

(b)

Wind energy (3.08 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 36 per cent of Parties indicating

corresponding measures;

(c)

Reducing conversion of forests and other ecosystems (2.28 Gt CO2 eq/year),

with 47 per cent of Parties reporting corresponding measures;

(d)

Improving energy efficiency in industry (1.14 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 30 per

cent of Parties identifying corresponding measures;

(e)

Reducing fluorinated gas emissions (0.94 Gt CO2 eq/year), with 26 per cent of

Parties including corresponding measures.

30.

For these feasible, effective and low-cost mitigation options,24 Parties communicated

measures for achieving conditional mitigation targets in their NDCs most frequently in

relation to solar energy (42 per cent of Parties), followed by those relating to reducing

conversion of forests and other ecosystems (31 per cent), wind energy (30 per cent) and

improving energy efficiency in industry (22 per cent). The largest conditionality gap25 in

terms of the difference between the shares of Parties referring to mitigation options for

achieving conditional and unconditional mitigation targets was found in relation to solar

energy (at 17 percentage points), followed by wind energy (13 percentage points) and

reduced conversion of forests and other ecosystems (8 percentage points). These indicate

Parties’ need for enhanced support and cooperation for effectively implementing these

mitigation options.

31.

Parties reported in their NDCs mitigation measures that contribute to global efforts

and mitigation options that have been covered in recent CMA decisions.26 Parties have also

domestically announced pledges (targets, policies, plans and projects) that relate to these

global efforts and mitigation options, including, but not limited to, increasing installed

capacity of renewables-based electricity generation by 2030, enhancing production of low

carbon hydrogen and expanding capture capacity for CCUS. The combined effects of

realizing those pledges related to the global efforts are projected to be significantly higher

than the aggregated 2030 targets pertaining to those global efforts indicated in the current

NDCs.

32.

A total of 46 per cent of Parties considered mitigation co-benefits resulting from their

adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans. In their new or updated NDCs more

Parties reported on mitigation co-benefits of adaptation action and economic diversification

plans, including information on specific projects, measures and activities with the resulting

co-benefits, compared with the information in their previous NDCs. Similarly, more Parties

provided information on their consideration of social and economic consequences of

response measures, and of just transition and/or economic diversification.

33.

Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits

include afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, reducing food

waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, conservation plans for protected areas,

nature-based solutions, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation,

improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price

reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management.

34.

Parties continued to report ocean-based measures to demonstrate climate action. Of

the Parties that included an adaptation component in their NDCs, 31 per cent identified ocean

ecosystems as a priority sector for adaptation and 13 per cent have quantified targets for

fisheries; while 12 per cent included reference to human- and climate-induced ocean changes

such as acidification, extreme weather events, sea level rise, storms and drought. Of the 21

per cent of Parties that included information on ocean or blue carbon as a priority sector for

reducing GHG emissions, 71 per cent mentioned specific ocean-based mitigation measures.

35. 
    

A total of 91 per cent of Parties provided information on some or all means of

implementation in their NDCs, although the structure and depth of that information varied

significantly. While 61 per cent included a section on means of implementation or separate

sections on finance, technology and/or capacity-building, 69 per cent mentioned or referred

to aspects of means of implementation in other sections of their NDCs.

36.

A total of 91 per cent of Parties provided information on finance as a means of NDC

implementation, with 69 per cent characterizing finance in terms of international support

needed and 24 per cent mentioning finance from domestic sources only. In addition, 46 per

cent of Parties provided quantitative estimates of financial support needs, which were often

expressed as total amounts over the time frame of the NDC. Of those, 29 per cent provided

updated quantitative estimates of financial support needs for the first time in their new or

updated NDCs.

37.

A total of 62 per cent of Parties identified certain types of technology that they intend

to use for implementing adaptation and mitigation actions, most frequently related to the

energy, agriculture, water and waste sectors. Technology needs mentioned by Parties were

mainly (41 per cent) of a cross-cutting nature addressing both adaptation and mitigation,

followed by those focused on mitigation (33 per cent) or adaptation (23 per cent). Over 50

per cent of Parties referred to policy, regulatory and legal measures, and innovation, research

and development for promoting and adopting low-carbon and climate-resilient technologies

in different sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and transport.

38.

Finally, 76 per cent of Parties identified capacity-building as a prerequisite for NDC

implementation. Capacity-building needs for formulating policy, integrating mitigation and

adaptation into sectoral planning processes, accessing finance and providing the information

necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs were identified. In their new

or updated NDCs, 20 per cent of Parties highlighted the importance of capacity-building for

transfer of low-carbon and green technologies, and of collaboration for effectively

implementing NDCs.

II. Mandate

39.

In accordance with the Paris Agreement, each Party is to prepare, communicate and

maintain successive NDCs that it intends to achieve and each successive NDC will represent

progression reflecting the Party’s highest possible ambition. Moreover, a Party may at any

time adjust its existing NDC with a view to enhancing the level of ambition.27 The

communicated NDCs are to be recorded in the NDC registry, maintained by the secretariat.

40.

COP 21 invited Parties to communicate their first NDC no later than when the Party

submits its respective instrument of ratification, acceptance or approval of or accession to the

Paris Agreement. A Party is also considered to have satisfied this provision, unless the Party

decides otherwise, if it had communicated an INDC prior to becoming a Party to the Paris

Agreement.28

41.

COP 21 requested Parties whose INDC pursuant to decision 1/CP.20 contains a time

frame:

(a)

Up to 2025: to communicate by 2020 a new NDC and to do so every five years

thereafter pursuant to Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement;

(b)

Up to 2030: to communicate or update by 2020 their NDC and to do so every

five years thereafter pursuant to Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement.29

42.

CMA 3 requested the secretariat to annually update the NDC synthesis report and to

make it available to the CMA at each of its sessions.30